{"id":29,"date":"2006-10-15T21:44:19","date_gmt":"2006-10-15T21:44:19","guid":{"rendered":""},"modified":"2020-05-25T00:17:45","modified_gmt":"2020-05-25T04:17:45","slug":"a_21271_a_39640_a_24066_a_38263_a_36984__26512","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.masablog.com\/?p=29","title":{"rendered":"北高市長選戰，紅藍聯軍制臺策略分析"},"content":{"rendered":"

大前題：用媒體來邊緣化臺聯的周玉蔻、羅志明及林志昇。以民調虛捧民進黨，以此貳分法達到分散綠營的力量，中國國民黨以鴨子划水式的發「走路工」。來收割成果。
\n分析：北市部份，宋楚瑜並非一盞省油的燈，彼激進的演出，若能再取得媒體的奧援，又保証2008只要作老二，勝出的機會很大。郝龍斌戰鬥力不足，稍一不慎，會落於黃大洲的結局。周玉蔻形象清新，又挾登輝伯的光環，有十萬選票的實力。施某人倒扁太早收場，不利謝長廷拓展票源，若能說服陳菊退選（吃香喝棘慣了的ＸＸ流可能放手嗎？），來交換周玉蔻相讓，謝オ有勝出的機會。游錫堃主席木納的性格不是談判的料子，竟然找蘇進強主席來比民調。定高低，不會審度形勢，就下不了好棋。
\n高市部份：聯合報說菊仔民調已和黄俊英接近了，這是一個陷井，因高市臺聯的羅志明的論述力及戰鬥力非常堅強的林志昇，加上高市選民的豪爽個性，羅林若能合縱出擊，必可穩操勝算。當年依附國民黨的三大家族，已三去其二，陳家明的不敢表態，力道稍嫌不足。民智大開的港都，空包彈啞彈會很多。所幸黨產脫手順利，袋子裡有的是子彈。羅林聯手則上，否則黃會勝出。這是目前的評估，還有一個多月的時間衝刺，各位候選人加油。
\n結論：要破除紅（媒體）藍（國親）聯軍的貳分法，綠營必須整合，才有勝算。民進黨的頭頭不知可有這般底慧根，下策是北高全軍付墨或是守北助臺聯上高雄的上策。我相太濃烈，就不足以成事。金剛經云：凡有所相，皆是虛妄，若見諸相非相，既見如來。就是這個道理。
\n方法：這個局勢的分折是假設宋先生咽不下被馬冷落這口氣而定。阿扁宜強力介入，主動找阿輝伯仔出擊，守北讓高。要了解阿輝伯的棋是固守中策的擴大綠營基本盤，而阿扁六年來被辱駡的一無是處，這個關鍵點是展現魅力最好的時機。<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

大前題：用媒&#39636 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-29","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-1"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.masablog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.masablog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.masablog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.masablog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.masablog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=29"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/www.masablog.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.masablog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=29"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.masablog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=29"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.masablog.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=29"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}